Question
How quickly does HIV progress?
25 November 2006. Related: All topics.
How many people in the UK and worldwide suffer from HIV? Also what percentage of people die in a certain amount of time?
Answer
In 2006, approximately 45 million people worldwide are thought to be HIV positive.
The number in the UK is around 60,000, one third not yet diagnosed though. This estimate is from anonymous testing and monitoring. In 2006, over 40,000 people in the UK have been diagnosed with HIV.
Your question about how fast HIV progresses to AIDS, and how long someone can survive after diagnosis is more complicated.
Without treatment, about 70% would take 5-8 years before the CD4 count drops to 200 (an AIDS diagnosis). Others progress faster or slower, with about 5% of people progressing rapidly over 1-2 years and another 5% able to go for more than 15 years and still keep a CD4 count above 500.
Most importantly, the effectiveness of treatment means that a positive HIV test result needn’t have any impact on your lifespan – so long as you have access to treatment, are adherent to treatment, and are able to tolerate treatment.
Just a small point, but one that is important to people living with HIV, is that being HIV positive does not mean that we ‘suffer with HIV’ or are ‘sufferers of HIV’.
This issue with language was raised many years ago, and although it may seem a small point, is important in understanding sensitive issues relating to how people take control of a medical diagnosis.
Hi Jamel
After getting an HIV diagnosis, the CD4 count is most important monitoring test in someone not on treatment.
Viral load only adds a little to this information.
CD4 count is the best guide so far for risk of future illnesses and starting before the CD4 count drops below 200 will protect you from nearly all these complications.
Some countries start treatment a bit earlier, between 200 and 350 and a trend to starting earlier may become more important over the next few years.
Your CD4 count is currently very strong. Monitoring this every 3-6 months will tell you the best time to start treatment,
Hi Simon
In a country where they don’t do viral load tests, just CD4 count tests, what is the risk if someones CD4 count is 680?
With no test for viral load, what does the person need to be doing?
Hi Zeb
Because combination therapy has only been around for 10 years, these statements are usually based on studies that use a mathematical model to predict continued impact todays treatment.
Two examples of such studies are linked below:
Life expectancy of persons at the time of initiating cART in high-income countries
Survival of persons with and without HIV infection in Denmark, 1995
Hi Simon,
A question for you. In many answers you make the statement that people who have acces to treatment will live a (near) normal lifespan. That sounds very encouraging!
Still I have hope but it sounds so hard to believe. The images of the 80’s and early 90’s still linger in my head.
Based on what kind of infromation do you make these statements?
greets
Zeb