Question

What are average rates that viral load increases each year without treatment?

17 June 2010. Related: CD4 and viral load.

Hello, Many thanks for this wonderful service.

I wondering if there are any studies about viral load over the years of HIV progression. I know HIV progression is different from individual to individual but I am wondering if there are some average figures say which predict that:

– 1st year of infection Viral load is expected to be less than xxx per mL
– 2nd year of infection Viral load is expected to be less than xxx per mL
– 2-5 year of infection Viral load is expected to be less than xxx per mL

I am referring to HIV infection without treatment.

Is there some research or findings in that direction?

Many thanks for this service.

Answer

Answer: Simon Collins

Thanks for your question and the nice feedback.

Lots of studies have collected average results, but the average figures all have very wide ranges.

For very slow progressors, viral load might increase by perhaps only 100 copies/mL each year.

In fast progressors, viral load might never comes down below 100,000 after seroconversion and they may start treatment, and never have a period off-treatment.

For the people in between – roughly 50% of people start treatment 2-10 years after infection – it is reasonable for viral load to increase by 10–20,000 each year.

This data is from the UK Seroconvertors Register, published in an article in the journal AIDS. Other studies are likely to be similar. The study is online at this link.