Cuts in aid: up to 10 million new HIV infections and almost 3 million related deaths by 2030

Lancet HIV

A new modelling study reports the five-year impact of reduced international funding from the five leading donor countries could lead to 4 to 10 million new HIV infections and 0.7 to 2.9 million HIV-related deaths by 2030. [1]

This is one of a growing numbers of studies reporting the catastrophic impact of the changes in US policy on international health. [2–9]

This is a situation when other countries need to increase rather than reduce funding.

References

  1. ten Brink D et al. Lancet HIV. Impact of an international HIV funding crisis on HIV infections and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study. Lancet HIV. (26 March 2025),
    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanhiv/article/PIIS2352-3018(25)00074-8/fulltext
  2. Grimsrud A et al. Securing our HIV response: The PEPFAR crisis in South Africa. SAMJ. 2025 Mar 10;115(2).
    https://samajournals.co.za/index.php/samj/article/view/3216
  3. Tram KH et al. By executive order: The likely deadly consequences associated with a 90-day pause in PEPFAR funding. J Int AIDS Soc., 28: e26431.
    https://doi.org/10.1002/jia2.26431
  4. Walimbwa J et al. The Consequences of Dismantling Community-Led HIV Programming in Kenya: a Call to Action from the HEKA Program Research Partnership in Kenya. SSRN. 2025 Feb 24. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5153847
  5. JIAS. Early impacts of the PEPFAR stop‐work order: a rapid assessment.
    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jia2.26423
  6. UNAIDS. Update on impacts of US shifts on the global HIV response www.unaids.org/en/resources/presscentre/featurestories/2025/february/20250218_weekly-update-impact-us-shift
  7. Lancet editorial: American chaos: standing up for health and medicine
    thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(25)00237-5/fulltext
  8. Lancet review. PEPFAR under review: what’s at stake for PEPFAR’s future. thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(25)00258-2/fulltext
  9. Potential clinical and economic impacts of cutbacks in the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief Program in South Africa: A Modeling Analysis. Gandhi AR et al. Annals of Internal Medicine. (1 February 2025).
    doi.org/10.7326/ANNALS-24-0110

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