Cuts in aid: up to 10 million new HIV infections and almost 3 million related deaths by 2030
28 March 2025. Related: Journal scan, Treatment access.
Lancet HIV
A new modelling study reports the five-year impact of reduced international funding from the five leading donor countries could lead to 4 to 10 million new HIV infections and 0.7 to 2.9 million HIV-related deaths by 2030. [1]
This is one of a growing numbers of studies reporting the catastrophic impact of the changes in US policy on international health. [2–9]
This is a situation when other countries need to increase rather than reduce funding.
References
- ten Brink D et al. Lancet HIV. Impact of an international HIV funding crisis on HIV infections and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study. Lancet HIV. (26 March 2025),
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanhiv/article/PIIS2352-3018(25)00074-8/fulltext - Grimsrud A et al. Securing our HIV response: The PEPFAR crisis in South Africa. SAMJ. 2025 Mar 10;115(2).
https://samajournals.co.za/index.php/samj/article/view/3216 - Tram KH et al. By executive order: The likely deadly consequences associated with a 90-day pause in PEPFAR funding. J Int AIDS Soc., 28: e26431.
https://doi.org/10.1002/jia2.26431 - Walimbwa J et al. The Consequences of Dismantling Community-Led HIV Programming in Kenya: a Call to Action from the HEKA Program Research Partnership in Kenya. SSRN. 2025 Feb 24. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5153847
- JIAS. Early impacts of the PEPFAR stop‐work order: a rapid assessment.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jia2.26423 - UNAIDS. Update on impacts of US shifts on the global HIV response www.unaids.org/en/resources/presscentre/featurestories/2025/february/20250218_weekly-update-impact-us-shift
- Lancet editorial: American chaos: standing up for health and medicine
thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(25)00237-5/fulltext - Lancet review. PEPFAR under review: what’s at stake for PEPFAR’s future. thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(25)00258-2/fulltext
- Potential clinical and economic impacts of cutbacks in the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief Program in South Africa: A Modeling Analysis. Gandhi AR et al. Annals of Internal Medicine. (1 February 2025).
doi.org/10.7326/ANNALS-24-0110