Question

Is my doctor in South Africa right to say I only have 10 years?

27 September 2023. Related: All topics, Life expectancy, Southern Africa.

I was diagnosed HIV+ last week with low CD4 count 70 and started Biktarvy with Bactrim.

My doctor told me that my life expectancy is maximum 10 years since I have diagnosed with very low CD4 count.

I am a 45 year old man from South Africa and having good health without any health issues (I have Thyroid) and doing exercise daily and taking good food, no smoking and taking 375 ML wine with 14% alcohol twice in a week.

So is my doctor telling 10 years life expectancy true?

Answer

Answer: Simon Collins

Hi there

Thanks for your question and for letting us answer this online.

It is really good that you now know your HIV status. This means you have now been able to start treatment (called ART). This should reduce your viral load to undetectable, and your CD4 count will become much stronger again.

It is also really good that you are physically active and that you eat a healthy balanced diet and don’t smoke. Alcohol in moderation is also okay if you enjoy this.

If your overall health is good, having a CD4 of 70 does not mean you only have 10 years to live. So long as you are good at taking your meds and your viral load stays undetectable, you could live another 20 or maybe 30 years.

Based on everything you have said, I would say that your doctor is wrong to have said this.

As a practical example. I started ART in 1996 with a CD4 count of only 2 cells/mm³. I am still leading an active life more than 25 years later.

Although everyone is different, and I have also been very  lucky, this experience is sometimes useful to mention. Meds like Biktarvy are much safer and more effective than the ART I used back in 1996.

Please be optimistic that you can plan a good future and do everything you want to. But also don’t take anything for granted and make sure every day counts.